Counterfactual Thinking and Universalism

1 Samuel 23:9-13 NLT

But David learned of Saul’s plan and told Abiathar the priest to bring the ephod and ask the Lord what he should do. Then David prayed, “O Lord, God of Israel, I have heard that Saul is planning to come and destroy Keilah because I am here. Will the leaders of Keilah betray me to him? And will Saul actually come as I have heard? O Lord, God of Israel, please tell me.”

And the Lord said, “He will come.”

Again, David asked, “Will the leaders of Keilah betray me and my men to Saul?”

And the Lord replied, “Yes, they will betray you.”

So, David and his men—about 600 of them now—left Keilah and began roaming the countryside. Word soon reached Saul that David had escaped, so he didn’t go to Keilah after all.

What are counterfactuals? (Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda)

A simple definition of counterfactual thinking is that it is the comparison of a real-life situation to one that could have been, would have been, or should have been had different choices been made. We tend to mentally undo the last occurrence in a sequence of events related to an outcome.

If I had only been on time, I would have been on the right train and wouldn’t have missed the show.

If I had stayed in the service, I could have retired by now.

If I had finished school, I would probably have a better job making more money?

Counterfactual thinking in Philosophy concerns what is not but could or would have been on a more academic level:

What if Martin Luther King, Jr had died when he was stabbed in 1958?

What if the Americas had never been colonized?

What would the world look like had the Nazis won the war?

That last one has been the subject of a television series, 4 or 5 novels and at least one Twilight Zone episode.

These modes of thought and speech have been the subject of extensive study in philosophy, linguistics, psychology, artificial intelligence, history, and many other allied fields. Counterfactual thinking crops up at the center of foundational questions in all these areas.

Counterfactual Thinking in Theology

We know the three main attributes of God: – He is omnipotent (all powerful), Omnipresent (everywhere present at once) and He is omniscient (all knowing). This touches His foreknowledge, which is perfect in every detail.

God not only knows the consequences of every decision you will make, but He knows the effects of every decision you could have made, would have made, or should have made.

Consider the scripture text we read above:

The Philistine army came against Keilah, a border town in Israel. Even though David and his men are on the run from King Saul, he couldn’t stand by and allow his countrymen to be defeated by this army. So, after enquiring of God, he goes down and defeats the enemy of Israel and saves the people of the city.

Saul hears that David is in Keilah and sets out with his garrisons to trap David and capture him. David hears about Saul’s plan and again enquires of the Lord. You read it above:

“Will the leaders of Keilah betray me to him? And will Saul actually come as I have heard? O Lord, God of Israel, please tell me.”

God answers yes that Saul will come down and, yes, the leaders of Keilah will betray you.

So, David leaves and goes into the countryside with his men.

Well, Saul is told that David is gone, and he turns around and doesn’t go down to the city and the people of the city are never called upon to betray David, as he chose to leave rather than to stay in Keilah. God knew the outcome of a choice that David never made!

Think of the implications here!

God, in His perfect foreknowledge, knows not only the results of every decision we will make, but also the outcomes of every decision we could have made. In most any given situation in which we find ourselves, we are presented with several choices. Certainly some, even most of the choices we make are in response to small issues that come and go without real immediate consequence.

However, there are larger matters about which we are called upon to make choices with much more serious implications. God not only knows what will result from the choice you do make, but the outcomes of all the possible choices you did not make.

Do you think it would be a good idea to take a page out of David’s book and enquire of the Lord in prayer about the choices we must make?

And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away… Behold, I make all things new. (Revelation 21:4-5a)

Consider also, it is the consequences of our poor choices that give us anguish? Aren’t all our regrets tied to the wrong decisions we’ve made? So, the tears that will be wiped away, for the most part, are tears of pain and anguish and regret over those choices, some of which came with serious consequences, the burdens of which were borne for a lifetime.

To do that, God will have to do something about the effect of all the poor choices made by humanity, some of which came with life-long, if not ages-long ramifications and there have been none more consequential than Adam’s choice to eat of the tree he was told not to.

Creation itself will be liberated from its bondage to decay and brought into the freedom and glory of the children of God. (Romans 8:21 NIV). God said old things will be gone and all things will be new. The whole world will be healed as it is drawn into God’s glory. Tim Keller, in his book, The Reason for God, sees it this way: “Evil will be destroyed and all the potentialities in creation, latent until that moment, will explode into fullness and beauty. Compared to what we will be then, we are now mere vegetables.”¹

Something powerful and spectacular will have to happen for God to take away the anguish, pain, shame, and despair over the choices we have made. It seems to me those consequences would have to be somehow changed into something good and beneficial. I am thinking about the evil of the brothers of Joseph, selling him into slavery, God meaning it for good, but on a much larger scale.

Dr. Keller used the word, “potentialities.” I like that word. Could it be that we become everything we had the potential to become? The “what could have been” of all of us somehow comes to fruition and what we become is just what God has for us in His kingdom? The potentialities of all God’s people would be manifest by seeing the results and consequences of all the choices we didn’t make but that we should have and all the choices we did make but should not have.

Given that the lives of everyone who ever existed are woven together like a great tapestry in, what appears from the underside, to be a mangled mess. We cannot yet see the finished work of the master, but when we do, all of creation will bow before Him who has always been working to bring His purpose to pass and to reveal His perfect plan to all of humanity.

That is theological counterfactual thinking. How big is YOUR God? How far-reaching is the Gospel in which YOU believe?

ENDNOTES

¹Keller, Timothy J., The Reason for God, Belief in the Age of Skepticism, New York: Penguin Books, ©2008, p. 232